LINDSEY BOERMA
Staff Writer
As I turned on my television to watch the political chaos that surrounded Super Tuesday’s long-anticipated results, I did a serious double-take.
Mike Huckabee’s face was plastered on MSNBC as it announced his win in yet another state, and the two remaining Democratic candidates — Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) — were nowhere to be seen. Wasn’t Feb. 5 supposed to be the day a Democratic front-runner emerged and the Republican field narrowed? If anything, the exact opposite occurred.
In a race that has already defied every precedent set by political analysts, as well as historical trends, the candidates on both sides proved once again that they are not going to make this election easy for Americans.
I don’t know why I’m surprised — it was naïve to think a single day would define this extraordinarily versatile group of presidential contenders. And, in hindsight, although the 24 state primaries held on Super Tuesday were certainly not the most revealing in terms of potential nominees, they cannot be denied credit for volatility.
Let’s start with the Republicans. Last week, I predicted Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Mitt Romney were in strong enough positions to stay in the race regardless of Super Tuesday’s results. This seemed like a safe bet — both candidates have earned an impressive number of state delegates, as well as high rankings in the national polls.
Yet, on Tuesday, Romney emerged from the largest primary battlefield in history with wins in only seven states, none of which carry a lot of delegates.
Romney’s dilemma can be traced back to what I like to refer to as the Huckabee phenomenon. Huckabee, a guy who wasn’t even considered a legitimate front-runner until his unexpected victory at the Iowa Caucus, just won’t go away.
After coming in third or below in a string of early primary states, such as New Hampshire, Michigan and Florida, Huckabee was on his election deathbed, relying solely on Super Tuesday’s southern evangelical votes to keep him alive.Not only did these states come through for him — they propelled him into Romney’s position right behind McCain.
So does this mean Romney will drop out of the race soon? My guess is probably not. Romney has enough money to fund himself right through the general elections and enough arrogance to run for president forever.
However, McCain did everything he was supposed to and more on Super Tuesday, rounding up nine wins, including the delegate-rich states of New York, Illinois and California.
I think McCain now has the GOP nomination sown up and Romney’s presence in the race is merely a formality. Huckabee, on the other hand, is proving himself to be a wise choice for McCain’s running mate, and I would not be surprised to see it happen.
On the Democratic side, the Super Tuesday results can be described as nothing more than a stalemate. We are no closer to having a Democratic nominee than we were at the onset of the election, and that could be a problem.
While Obama took more states, Clinton won the goldmines — California and New York. Their delegate count is now essentially the same, with Obama leading by 13.
This two-man race is turning into a bloodbath in which the last man standing will be the nominee. Thus, if neither Obama nor Clinton can set themselves apart from one another, how will they be able to rise above the Republican nominee in the general election?
If a McCain-Huckabee ticket surfaces, the GOP side has the potential to woo swing states and appeal to both the conservative and independent bases, paving the way for yet another Republican president. It is a vital consideration as we move into the last leg of the election, and chances are that voters will not ignore it.
02-07-2008
