LINDSEY BOERMA
Staff Writer
A few months ago, I made a prediction. I guessed that in 2008, Americans would elect either their first African American president or their first female president. Now, I’m not so sure.
It would seem fitting that as the Bush era, often labeled the worst executive administration in history, comes to an end, Americans would embrace a candidate who represents everything Bush is not — in essence, a Democrat.
Yet, the two candidates who have emerged from the start as the Democratic front-runners — Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) — have yet to surge ahead of their Republican rivals. National polls show Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) winning in potential match-ups against any of the Democrats.
Now, as McCain has swept another win in the long-awaited Florida primary as well as an endorsement from former rival Rudy Giuliani, his chances are as good as ever.
So who is it going to be on the Democratic side?
Essentially, it all comes down to Super Tuesday. On Feb. 5, primaries will be held in 24 states, theoretically determining who will represent each party in the 2008 presidential race.
My opinion? It won’t be Clinton.
If voters are smart, they will acknowledge that Clinton does not have the independent support base that Obama does, and that independents could be key in winning this election.
Of course, Clinton will take a hefty lead in her home state of New York, just as Obama will in Illinois. However, Clinton has thus far not done well in rural precincts, and those types of communities will be crucial on Super Tuesday.
The way I see it, Clinton will take New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and California — the states with major urban areas — as well as Arkansas, because her husband is the former governor of the state and was extremely popular while in office. Obama will win Illinois, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, Georgia and Alabama. The rest of the states are toss-ups.
It’s interesting to me that as an African American candidate, Obama has rounded up so much support from the stereotypically conservative southern states. It says a lot about his versatility.
Something to note on Clinton’s end is the effect of her husband, Bill, in this election. They have become a two-for-one ticket item, and that has the potential to help or hinder her campaign.
Another factor to consider is the role John Edwards is playing by dropping out of the race.
I believe Edwards could have taken as much as 10 percent of the Democratic vote on Super Tuesday, stealing a significant amount of votes from the other candidates. This would have had the potential to alter the overall results, as it could have given either Clinton or Obama an edge they otherwise wouldn’t have had.
Now, those votes Edwards carried have to go somewhere, and only time will tell where.
On the Republican side, I think it’s safe to say both McCain and Mitt Romney are in strong enough positions to stay in the race regardless of Super Tuesday’s results.
That does not mean, however, that Feb. 5 will not affect the GOP race.
Mike Huckabee is hanging onto his spot in the race by the skin of his teeth, and Super Tuesday will unveil his political fate. His hope lies in the southern evangelical states, which could be enough to keep him going.
We can also expect Romney to snag a few western states, and McCain to round up independents.
It’s anybody’s race, and Super Tuesday could be the finish line.
01-31-2008
