CLIFFORD SMITH
Staff Writer
Richard Nixon said in his 1973 book, “In the Arena,” that in retrospect, he was glad he lost the 1962 governor’s race in California, his second loss in a row after the agonizingly close 1960 campaign for President against John Kennedy. Had he not lost that race, he certainly would have been pushed to run for president again in 1964. Running again in 1964, when the nation was still grieving over the loss of President Kennedy, would have been futile and would have ended his presidential aspirations. In 1968, the stars aligned for Nixon, and this two-time loser became President. He was the right man at the right time.
This is a story Sen. John McCain (R – Ariz.) should take to heart. Truth be told, the 2008 presidential campaign began a while ago, and remarkably, the stars appear to be aligning for McCain.
Like Nixon making the mistake of running for Governor of California in 1962, McCain made some mistakes after losing the 2000 Presidential primary to then Governor Bush. He spent far too much of his time attacking those elements of the party that had been against him, far too much time playing up those issues that he disagreed with them on and not nearly enough being himself. It might surprise a lot of hardcore right-wingers, but McCain’s voting record and stances have been overwhelmingly in the conservative wing of his party, and his disagreements have mostly been on secondary issues.
Also like Nixon, McCain may yet be saved from his own mistakes by circumstances beyond his control. Not by losing an election, like Nixon did, but by domestic issues like Hurricane Katrina and Bush’s difficulties with Iraq.
What these things did was change the subject away from his disagreements with some elements of his own party to areas where they agree wholeheartedly. The high cost of Hurricane Katrina became a major issue, and Sen. Tom DeLay (R – Texas) arrogantly said there “wasn’t any pork” left in the budget to cut to pay for it, cutting government spending became an issue at the forefront of the agenda of the grass-roots Republicans, who had been ignored on this issue for far too long. Enter McCain, a longtime pork-spending fighter. He’s made only mild progress so far, but conservatives are nodding their heads when he talks.
Then, there are President Bush’s troubles, which help McCain in two ways. First, McCain is the clear favorite against any Democrat in the general election. Recent polls suggest he’s even leading Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton in Vermont. And that’s in the same state that has the only Socialist member of Congress and previously had Howard Dean as governor. So if Republicans decide winning, not purity, is the most important thing in 2008, they’ll pick McCain. Second, Bush is in trouble on issues McCain is strong, and the issues are ones they agree on, mainly the problems in Iraq. What this does, is allow McCain to show support for Bush, enduring himself to Bush’s supporters, while his image protects him from those who don’t like Bush’s policies.
It seems to be working. Recently McCain has made news by saying mostly things that the base of his party agrees with. While there is a section of his party that will always despise him, he’s made some converts among the base, and a lot of converts among the movers and shakers that can bring more. Just a few weeks ago, Terry Nelson, the national political director for Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign joined McCain’s Straight Talk America group as a senior adviser. Earlier this week, the first President Bush hosted McCain at his Presidential library in Texas.
It’s too early to say what the future will hold for McCain, but events seem to indicate that he’ll be the right man at the right time. President Bush was the right man at the right time in 2000, and I supported him over McCain. If I could do it all over again, I’d still pick Bush in 2000. However, in 2008, two of the most important issues will be terrorism and government spending and McCain has the passion and the political capital to spare on those issues.
I’m still not sold on McCain. I think the guy has a bit of an ego and a bad temper. There are certain issues I don’t agree with him on, although that’s true for Bush as well. I think he’s shown bad judgment in some of the fights he has picked. It may well be, that in 2008, he’ll be the right man at the right time, and this Bush supporter will strongly consider supporting him.
04-06-2006