BEN YOUNG
Staff Writer
The proliferation of nuclear weapons around the globe is a scary thing. There are many people who live in breathless dread fearing possible nuclear war. And now Iran, hardly a stable, peaceful country is in hot and open pursuit of nuclear weapons. Iran’s development of nuclear weapons is quickly becoming a nightmare scenario for the West.
Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons should not surprise anyone. Iran’s leaders have been vocal about their desire to acquire nuclear weapons over the course of the past few years, and this is an issue that has been on the administration’s and well as Europe’s radar quite prominently over the same course of time. And it does not take much digging to find op-eds and policy position papers advocating U.S. military action against the Iranians. As of a year ago, military action seemed all but certain, and publications such as The Atlantic Monthly were spinning out war- game scenarios. Some even go so far as to say that our engagement in Iraq is primarily for a foothold in the region from which to launch an attack on Iran. Just last week, Sen. John McCain (R — Ariz.) on “Face the Nation” declared “There is only one thing worse than the United States exercising a military option. That is a nuclear-armed Iran.”
But we have not yet attacked Tehran. So far the president and his cabinet have been content to continue in roundtable talks with the Iranians and pressure the United Nations Security Council for sanctions resolutions and the like. In short, the United States is playing a very European hand, primarily relying on “soft power” to deter the Iranians. Right now, this is a valid and probably the most reasonable path of action the United States can take. The problem we have in Iran, much like the problem we had in Iraq, is that we do not yet know exactly what the Iranians actually possess. We know for certain that the Iranian government wants a nuclear weapon, and we know for certain that they are working to that end, but we do not have conclusive informative about the width and depth of their nuclear program. That is why the United States must, at least for now, engage the Iranians in talks and negotiations and stay away from the military option.
This, however, is not a permanent solution to the problem. Since he was elected, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been ranting and raving about the Holocaust and the destruction of Israel, which is entirely problematic. The Iranian development of nuclear weapons would be one thing if the country was run by reasonable people — unfortunately, this is not the case. The United States must start steeling itself for another war in the Middle East. Unless President Ahmadinejad backs down or takes a more moderate position, forceful regime change seems to be the only reasonable option.
And this is precisely why the United States must continue to engage both the European Union and the United Nations in negotiations with the Iranians. If the situation escalates such that war is the only remaining option, then at least we would go to war with a solid coalition in place and presumably with the backing of the United Nations Security Council. No one in the West wants to see Iran with nuclear weapons, so it is sensible that once all soft power negotiations have run their course, we would have the solid backing for the military option.
In the meantime, it is very important that the United States engage the pro-West faction inside Iran through multi-track diplomacy. Iran has a large university demographic that is becoming more and more liberal and pro-West — they could be useful in stimulating tension and change from the inside. A liberal, Democratic Iran would greatly stabilize the situation.
Unfortunately, the clock is ticking and it might already be too late. Most in the intelligence community estimate that Iran will have a useable nuclear weapon in six to 10 years. The Israelis maintain that Iran will cross the point of no return in around two. As this situation progresses, the administration must be preparing for war in Iran with the goal of regime change and the knowledge that the country will have to be totally rebuilt with a strong, feasible exit strategy in mind. The American people need to understand that if we go to war with Iran, a draft will probably be necessary and the costs will far exceed the cost of the war in Iraq. The situation is certainly not pretty, but it is clear that Iran cannot be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon.
02-09-2006