John J. Pitney uses the Gilded Age and Grover Cleveland’s win in 1892 to outline the 2024 political rematch.
Payson Libraries hosted Pitney as a guest lecturer on March 29, where he spoke on presidential rematches. Pitney has written several books, including “Un-American: The Fake Patriotism of Donald J. Trump,” and he is a Roy P. Crocker professor of Politics at Claremont McKenna College. Pitney focused his lecture on the similarities between the election years of 1892 and 2024.
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes,” Pitney said.
Grover Cleveland’s election is comparable to Donald Trump’s election in 2016, Pitney said.
Cleveland’s opponent, James J. Blaine, had said some anti-Catholic remarks before the 1884 election, which resulted in Cleveland gaining many Catholics’ votes and, therefore, winning the election, Pitney said.
Cleveland lost to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 but won during their political rematch in 1892.
The Jewish vote is big for the democratic party, Pitney said. However, where the democrats could run into trouble, which is comparable to Cleveland’s victory over Blaine in the 1884 election, is with voters in Michigan.
Michigan has a large Arab-American population, and in the recent democratic primary, 100,000 residents voted “uncommitted,” according to CBS News. Biden flipped Michigan blue in the 2020 election, following Trump’s Michigan win in 2016, according to Politico.
“Without the democrats sympathizing with Palestinians — this could be an issue,” Pitney said.
The world we live in today is comparable to the Gilded Age, Pitney said.
The Gilded Age was full of technological and industrial advancements, but that coincided with corrupt bankers, politicians and industrialists making money off of everyday Americans, according to History.
There are concerns people have today that are comparable to concerns in the early 1900s, Pitney said. They include inequality, concentration of power and certain rich people whom the public believes are too influential, Pitney said.
J.P. Morgan was an influential businessman in the Gilded Age, Pitney said. Today, there are “very different kinds of people like Elon Musk,” Pitney said.
From 1876 to 1892, presidential candidates didn’t receive more than 50% of the vote, Pitney said.
Pitney predicted with the similarities to the Gilded Age and Cleveland election in 1892, the 2024 election will not be won in a landslide but will be rather close.
In the 1892 election, both incumbents were challenged by a third-party populist named James B. Weaver, according to Britannica. The spoiler effect could happen with third-party independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running, Pitney said.
The democrats may be open to voting for him because of his name, and republicans may be open to voting for Kennedy because of his vaccines views, Pitney said.
“We have two incumbents,” Pitney said. “How is it going to play out?”
Pitney finished by encouraging students to get out and vote.
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