For Pepperdine students looking to pursue a medical degree after they graduate a recent national trend may make that dream more attainable. Responding to recommendations by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) and Congress 86 percent of American medical schools have a current or planned increase in the number of applicants they will admit according to the AAMC. New medical schools are also opening at an increased rate.
The movement to increase the availability of medical education stems from concern about a future shortage of healthcare as the baby boomer generation ages and retires. The demand for health care is expected to peak in 2020.
“The early 21st century will be known as a period of great expansion of medical education in the United States said Sarah Bunton and William Mallon, AAMC associates, in a joint report on the challenges medical schools are facing in their efforts to increase student capacity published in February 2008.
According to the report, the number of students attending medical school in 2013 is expected to be 20 percent higher than it was in 2002. This is nearly on target to meet the AAMC’s 2006 recommendation, which was that enrollment in medical schools should increase by 30 percent by 2015.
A third of the nation’s doctors are over the age of 50 so they may be retiring soon said Amjed Mustafa, director of pre-health programs at Kaplan Test Prep and Admissions. The younger generation is just not as big. There is also a greater need for healthcare because the general population is getting older.”
Pre-health refers to students planning to enter a health profession such as medicine or dentistry.
The increased opportunity to pursue a medical degree and eventually a medical career may make the admissions process less intimidating for Pepperdine students.
“I am glad to hear that there will be increased enrollments at medical schools said freshman Michelle Deneen, a sports medicine major who plans to attend medical school after graduation. It will still be a challenge but it will definitely make the whole process less daunting.”
However the possibility of a decreased level of competition in medical school acceptances is not necessarily a deciding factor for many Pepperdine students who are considering pre-med studies.
“I’ve gotten pretty good grades at Pepperdine so I’m not super concerned [about admissions] said senior Brett Hughes. I haven’t taken my MCATs yet and if I bomb those it will obviously influence my decision to go to medical school but I’m not too worried.”
The MCAT is the admission test for medical schools.As a religion major Hughes said his choice of a professional career was influenced more by spiritual factors than the potential to become wealthy. Still he said a growing demand for healthcare in the future might attract him to the field.
“The increased need for medical services makes it an area where I can see my skills being used but one of many Hughes said. The success rate of Seaver students applying to medical schools is estimated to be far above the national average of 50 percent, according to Dr. Laurie Nelson, Seaver College’s pre-health advisor. While the official estimated acceptance rate of Pepperdine graduates into medical schools is between 70 and 80 percent, Nelson estimates the rate is even higher for those students who are seriously committed to pursuing medicine.
It is unclear whether decreasing the level of competition for seats in medical schools could decrease the quality of the students they accept or the education they provide. Mustafa said the additional students enrolled will be just as successful because the average applicant is very strong academically, but the increase in medical school capacity could have a negative effect on learning if class sizes increase.
Either way, the AAMC sees the capacity increase of medical schools as a step in the right direction to counteract the predicted physician shortage.
New medical schools are also under construction. For example, the University of California Riverside (UCR) plans to open a medical school in the fall of 2012. Although UCR currently offers a two-year program, after which each class of 24 students can complete their studies at UCLA, the new medical school will enroll 50 students for a full four-year degree program in its first year and eventually increase each class’ size to 100. In addition, every year the school will offer a residency program for 160 students.
There are currently five other medical schools within the University of California system, but according to Kathy Barton, director of communications for the future UCR School of Medicine, these schools already train too few physicians to meet California’s need.
We are already experiencing a severe shortage in the physician workforce and [the problem in the Riverside region] is the most serious in the state Barton said, citing rapid population growth in the area and a high rate of physicians retiring as causes for the problem.
