Cliff Smith
Staff Writer
Pundits this year are basically split into two camps: Those who think the Republicans are going to lose big, the same way the Democrats did in 1994, and those who think the Republicans are going to lose small, perhaps the way the Democrats lost small in 2004. They all agree, however, Republicans are going to lose ground.
The Republicans are hurt by a series of things. They have been facing problems with Congressional earmarking, and the related matter of their failure to control spending, their failure to please either side of the debate on the immigration issue, and a series of scandals. It started with Jack Abramoff, the corrupt lobbyist who pleaded guilty to bribing members of Congress (so far, only Bob Ney, R-Ohio, pleaded guilty to being bribed). Democratic Congressman William Jefferson was caught with $90,000 in his freezer after accepting money from a federal agent, so it became a bipartisan problem that did not hurt the Republicans.
Then, the Mark Foley scandal was revealed. Former congressman Foley had rumors about his sexual orientation swirling around him for years, but it was just a few weeks ago that some inappropriate chats he had with boys in the Congressional Page program came to light, which lead to allegations that the GOP leadership had covered for him, because they wanted to make sure his seat was safe. The evidence thus far does not support that claim, but investigations are still pending.
The real problem with the Foley scandal is not so much the event itself. Truth be told, far worse has been done and not all that long ago. The late Democratic Congressman Gary Studds actually had sex with a underage male page, and while he was censured, he was re-elected six more times, unlike Foley who stepped down immediately on the mere suggestion. The truth is that the Foley scandal is damaging because it fits into the idea that was already simmering under the surface: Current leadership is out of touch and is more interested in its own power than good governance.
All of this is, of course, amplified by difficulties in Iraq and the failure of the federal government to perform to expected standards during Hurricane Katrina. It is a difficult environment to run in. But as Former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill would say, all politics is local. National moods do not decide elections. They just define how local elections are run.
How each individual race is going is also sometimes difficult to tell. If you were to take the series of polls that were released right after the Foley scandal, the Republicans are looking at a gigantic wipeout. If you look at the overall trend, the tea leaves are very hard to read. There are races that find themselves vulnerable to Democratic takeover, such as the Virginia Senate race where Sen. George Allen faced a huge drop in polls after he used what turned out to be an obscure racial slur against a Democratic operative during a campaign appearance, and Mark Foley’s congressional seat in Florida, which was considered safe before Foley stepped down.
It comes down to this: There are probably about seven Republican Senate seats that Democrats have a realistic shot at winning, while there are at most three, and probably two Democratic Senate seats that Republicans have a realistic shot at picking up. In the house, there are about 35 seats in the hands of the Republicans that Democrats can credibly have a shot at winning, and only about 10 seats held by Democrats that Republicans have a realistic shot at winning. Since many of the seats the Democrats are trying to win come from decidedly red districts, and many of these Republicans won their last races by double-digits, as well as most of the seats the Republicans can win are in red districts that still have Democratic congressmen, so it is likely that the elections will come down to turnout. The side turns out their people is the side that wins.
The conventional wisdom is that in the 6th year of an eight-year presidency, the president’s party is not motivated to turn out, and Bush’s low approval ratings would lend credence to that time-honored theory. Of course, the flipside of that argument is that the Republicans have spent the past six years building the most sophisticated turnout machine in the history of politics, and it worked spectacularly well in 2002 and 2004. So while predicting Republican losses might not be bold, picking the size of their loss is very difficult.
I have two things to say to all of us here at Pepperdine: First, politics are extremely important to the future of our country so get out and vote, and second, if you, like me, enjoy watching politics like some people watch a football game — pass the popcorn.
10-26-2006