Crystal Luong
News Editor
It may be several more days before officials finalize results from the Iraq elections Sunday, but the exercise of voting has marked a significant step in a state of turmoil toward the establishment of a democracy.
Despite insurgents’ threats of violence and more than a dozen attacks on Election Day, between 60 and 75 percent of registered Iraqi voters turned out at the polls, according to the latest election reports from Baghdad.
“The Iraq elections are the triumph of civility and courage over hatred and violence,” said School of Law Professor Douglas Kmiec, who served as Constitutional legal counsel to presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. “Much work remains to be done in the formation of a constitution that can adequately balance freedom with religious difference, but the removal of a brutal dictator followed by free elections is one of modern America’s most noble efforts.”
Abroad, more than 265,000 expatriate Iraqis voted in 14 countries designated by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) Out-of-Country Voting (OCV) Program. The Los Angeles polling center at the former El Toro marine base in Irvine, one of five voting locations in the United States, reported 3,660 voters during the course of the three days, from Jan. 28 to 30.
“I have worked on many post-conflict out-of-country elections, but this is honestly the first time I have seen this level of emotion and excitement among voters,” said Iraq OCV Program Director Peter Erben in a public statement.
IOM has also been responsible for the organization of out-of-country voting in Afghanistan’s first democratic election, which allowed 850,000 Afghans residing in Pakistan and Iran to participate in October.
Through the casting of their ballots, Iraqis are determining the future of the Transitional National Assembly, a legislative body of 275 members who will draft Iraq’s constitution and select a presidency council.
Dr. Dan Caldwell, professor of political science, said he views the elections in a positive light but foresees obstacles in the establishment of a democratic state.
“The turnout rate was very impressive,” Caldwell said. “I was surprised by how little widespread violence there was. The question now is how the public will accept the results.”
That question is coming to the forefront as the Association of Muslim Scholars, Iraq’s leading Sunni Muslim political group, said Wednesday that the new government lacks legitimacy due to the Sunni boycott of the elections.
Sunnis constitute almost 1/3 of the Muslim population in Iraq while Shi’a Muslims form a 2/3 majority.
Dr. Robert Williams, professor of political science, said Iraqi’s elected leadership will need to compromise for the transitional government to be successful.
“It’s going to depend a lot on how willing the majority is willing to reach out to the Sunni minority,” he said.
Williams also identified other fractures within Iraq that may pose difficulties for a peaceful democracy: the country’s ethnic divisions, a divide between “those concerned about getting the United States out and those seeing the United States as a means of protection” and socio-economic divisions.
The Iraqi constitution, which is slated for completion by Aug. 15 and a general referendum on Oct. 15, will need to take the “Kurdish problem” into account as well. Roughly one out of five Iraqis is Kurdish, according to CIA statistics.
“The early indications are the Kurds seem to be happy (with the elections),” Williams said, but the constitution needs a federal arrangement that would “allow autonomy for the Kurds.”
United States involvement in Iraq is not expected to wane in the near future, however, despite the election’s seeming success.
Caldwell said he expects the phase-based withdrawal of the 150,000 American troops in Iraq, but it will be a matter of years rather than months.
“There will increasingly be pressure from Congress on the Bush administration to establish a withdrawal timeline,” Williams said.
In these waiting stages of election results, Kmiec expresses a sense of optimism for Iraq.
“Hopefully, international and domestic naysayers will now pull together to make the nascent Iraqi democracy ever stronger and more free,” Kmiec said.
02-03-2005