ELI SAYEGH
Staff Writer
It seems increasingly likely that we will witness a John McCain/Barack Obama showdown in the general election.
Although it is still too early to call the Democratic race, Rasmussen Reports gives Obama a 70.2 percent chance at winning the nomination. After Obama’s recent series of successes, his camp has stated that a Hillary Clinton nomination is “unlikely.” Indeed, Clinton will be fighting to keep her candidacy alive in the Ohio and Texas contests.
If the race ultimately narrows to McCain versus Obama, voters will have two distinct choices for the presidency: experience versus youth; war proponent versus war critic.
I am hardly enthused about the choice.
To credit McCain, he is an American hero with a fine record of service to his country. He has proven that he can cross party lines and unite Americans behind a single cause. I also admire his reputation as a maverick — a man who will do the right thing regardless of potential political costs.
But is he the right man for the Republicans? I don’t believe so.
It is troubling that he has been unable to secure the base of the Republican party. Even at this late point in the Republican race, following Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani’s departure from the race, McCain is struggling to obtain majorities and win states. His wins have not been convincing, and he has lost contests such as Kansas and Louisiana.
These trends pose a problem in the general election. In 2004, even though then-nominee George W. Bush faced an uphill battle nationally, he was still able to motivate Republican voters and inspire grassroots support. The Republican Party, as a whole, rallied around Bush because they believed strongly that he was a better alternative to John Kerry.
In this race, however, McCain has not been able to inspire Republican voters. He lacks the support of conservatives, which constitute a significant portion of the party. He does appeal significantly to moderates, but that may be inconsequential in a contest versus Obama, who has shown that he is extremely effective at reaching people all across the political spectrum.
More than anything else, John McCain is struggling because he simply isn’t a traditional conservative.
It was McCain who said he would consider running for the vice presidency with Kerry in 2004. It was McCain who sponsored a 2005 bill (along with Obama and Kerry) to spend U.S. taxpayer dollars on health care systems abroad in an effort to temper illegal immigration.
My foremost concern about McCain is his nonchalance about the economy. I believe strongly that the economy is the heartbeat that makes the United States great. A strong economy is the basis for a strong military, effective health care, a quality education system and an overall strength of spirit among Americans.
Several polls have shown that the economy is the top issue among voters. According to a January Rasmussen poll, 40 percent of voters now see the economy as the most important issue, well ahead of “health care” and the “War in Iraq” at 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively.
But McCain has acknowledged that the economy lies outside of his expertise. In a November 2005 interview with the Wall Street Journal, McCain admitted, “I’m going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.”
In fairness to McCain, he has delivered a fairly clear idea of the type of president he intends to be. You may like or dislike him, but you know exactly what you are going to get.
On the Democratic side, Obama has inspired millions with his hope-invoking speeches and do-anything attitude.
He is fervent about issues such as the war, poverty and unemployment. His speeches spark an image of America’s potential.
But I am cautious about being too enthusiastic about speeches. I am looking for specific plans rather than abstract, vague metaphors. I know he cares deeply about America, but it is one thing to speak about a vision, and something entirely different to accomplish it once you are president.
Some have noticed parallels between Obama and Jimmy Carter, who won the presidency in 1976. Carter rose from relative obscurity in a period of nine months but won over voters with his message of change, unity and hope.
The main worry about Carter was that he lacked foreign policy expertise, although he vowed to employ a diplomatic approach with foreign leaders. The repercussions were enormous. Carter had several mishaps in international relations, his presidency was an overall disappointment and, as a result, he lost the 1980 election by a wide margin.
Could Obama encounter similar difficulties as president?
As the foreseeable anti-war candidate of the race, Obama undoubtedly appeals to the three-quarter proportion of Americans opposed to the Iraq War.
His position against the war is a fair one to hold. But are his withdrawal plans realistic? What about the humanitarian crisis that might arise if we withdraw prematurely? Would the United States be remembered as a nation that entered Iraq, left it disheveled and abandoned the country before the job was finished?
According to a recent Associated Press poll, Obama has the early lead over McCain, 48 percent to 42 percent, nationally. Of course, the race has shown thus far that public opinion is unpredictable.
If a McCain-Obama outcome holds up, I will be watching to see how the candidates separate themselves. I will be looking past rhetoric and style, and instead focusing on the breadth and practicality of their plans.
Furthermore, I will have to decide between two candidates whose political dispositions differ from mine. However, American history has shown that good presidents arise from all branches of political thought, and I will remain optimistic that someone will emerge in the next few months as a worthy choice.
02-21-2008