Scott Withycombe
Perspectives Assistant
Coming out of the Republican convention, President Bush received a nice bounce in the polls. While many are calling the president’s two to four point gain (depending which poll you read) over his previous figures modest, it is a very important surge for the incumbent.
The polls show Bush gaining over Kerry not only in a hypothetical election, but also on many of the major issues. The gains and surges Bush has received point to his campaign’s strengths and weakness and can be used not only to measure the convention’s success but to refocus the re-election efforts around Bush’s strongest talking points, while refining areas in which he still needs to gain some ground.
When viewed in conjunction with Kerry’s drop in the latest polling figures, the president is facing a much better spread, enjoying anywhere from a seven to eleven point lead over the challenger. The Bush camp must not waste this lead as November nears. They must work hard to control the course of campaigning from this point. To do so, it will be vital for Bush to campaign actively and aggressively heading into the final stretch before the election.
Bush cannot expect Kerry to win this campaign for him. He must highlight his strengths and successes and clearly distinguish himself from his opponent.
Further, Bush must address some of the concerns, criticisms and questions voters have about his administration and his record. The president did this in his convention address and it received a positive response.
While many voters have concretely made up their minds, the president must make a concerted effort to attract moderate and swing constituents. A carefully crafted message, an open dialogue and an information blitz from the Bush-Cheney campaign could help perpetuate the momentum gained from the convention among these voters.
The success of the convention points to the electoral progress Bush could attain if he and his supporters more actively promote his message.
The convention’s focus on the president’s leadership, personality and dedication to the war on terror and the war in Iraq hit home with voters. In all of these areas the president polls much stronger than Kerry. The convention’s focus on these issues strengthened Bush’s favorability versus Kerry in these important areas.
On terrorism and Iraq the president must actively explain not only his policy and dedication but also the startling differences between his security plan and Kerry’s proposals. Bush must continue to remind Americans of his commitment to national security and to explain that he will continue to take the war to the terrorists before they can bring it to our shores again.
The president has the ability to control the dialogue and debate in this election and if he forces the focus on terrorism, the single most important issue to voters, he will easily keep his job next November.
Bush must place more focus on his economic plan. Coming out of the convention the gap between the president and Kerry concerning handling of the economy has tightened within the margin of error.
The economy is going to be a major issue in the 20 swing states, many of which have experienced the loss of manufacturing jobs. Bush must continue to cite the amazing economic growth the nation has experienced in the aftermath of a major attack on American soil and institution, especially continual job growth during the past few months and an unemployment rate that rivals that during Clinton’s tenure. A continuous dialogue about the recent economic progress and his future economic plan will help Bush make further gains on this important issue.
Polls are not entirely conclusive or accurate, but they do paint interesting pictures of the electorate and the success of political campaigns. If the president can come out of this convention, from which even Dick Cheney got a boost in popularity, promoting his positive agenda for America, and focusing on his successes, leadership and moral-clarity he can march to assured victory in 2004. Bush is entirely capable of reaching out to the American public. The sooner the discourse deficit that has been somewhat characteristic of this administration ends, the faster Bush will see just how much support there is for his agenda among the American people. If Bush does not lose this election, he will win it in a landslide.
09-09-2004