By JJ Bowman
Associate Editor
Few fail as profoundly as I do when predicting the future. For instance, I thought “Skin” would last nearly 10 episodes, but the show was canned after three. I have also been predicting the Boston Red Sox would win the World Series in each of the last 12 years.
I make more serious predictions as well, but as I revisit my forecasts I find more mistakes. For instance, on the evening of Sept. 11, 2001, I predicted terrorists would start hitting our subways and shopping malls within weeks. That never panned out (although we aren’t out of the woods yet), but I also predicted, along with many others, that those too young to remember Vietnam would look at the world through a Sept. 11 lens, and cast their votes based on security at home.
With the Sept. 11 attacks altering the perspective of many young people, an ensuing battle between the age groups appeared certain. Some see the War on Terror with cynicism. They see a war for oil not protection. And they scream “quagmire” during setbacks and cringe at the prospect of a war without an end or purpose.
The Sept. 11 crowd sees this differently. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are about establishing safety at home through stability abroad. Although setbacks must be expected, victory is certain, resolve is unshakable.
To see the difference in outlooks, one can look back to Veterans Day. Except, of course, for those who live their life between campus and Ralphs and did not realize that the nation celebrated a national holiday Tuesday. To our elders it harkens to the sacrifices of the World Wars. To others, it’s a reminder that we are still at war against a real threat worth destroying. And to a third group, this past holiday meant nothing if it did not act as a reminder of the failures from Vietnam we have invited back in this century.
With a presidential election less than a year away, we will finally see if these different outlooks actually mean anything politically. One camp argues that we have already seen the dawn of a new era. Andrew Sullivan noted a recent Washington Post poll that showed young people give President Bush an approval rating of 66 percent, compared to 51 percent support among those 61 and older.
No one would argue we already have a huge chasm in this country — about one-third of this country adors Bush while another third wants him tarred and feathered. With these two factions more or less canceling each other out the question remains: How much will the Sept. 11 worldview affect voting. In the same poll Sullivan cited, young and old alike all care more about the economy than the threat of terrorism.
So, it’s still the economy, stupid, and that makes sense. We have not been attacked on our own soil since 2001, and only the most paranoid individuals fear entering a subway car or public square. New Yorkers certainly remember, but for us stuck in California and the worries of fires, deficits and a bodybuilding governor, terrorism is less tangible.
Time will tell if the threat of terrorism makes a difference, or if people care more about the economy or the specific problem of Iraq. Perhaps those of us under 25 will, in fact, Rock the Vote, but not too emphatically after watching the democratic debate sponsored by MTV’s not-so-non-partisan attempt at getting out the vote. If they have their way, we will elect the biggest partier running, which bodes well for the pre-1980 George W. Bush.
Nevertheless, the economy will still matter most so long as personal safety does not again become an immediate concern. That’s my prediction. Well that, and the Red Sox will win the World Series in 2004.
November 13, 2003