Unrealistic expectations from a hopeful electorate and an adoring media will burden President Barack Obama’s first term. Left unfulfilled these expectations will hinder Obama’s re-election chances in 2012 but what will really decide the next election is the country’s economic performance over the next four years.
Should the economy show signs of recovery during Obama’s first term only an epic political blunder would prevent him from serving a second term. However if financial markets remain unstable more American jobs are lost and bailouts remain ineffective Obama will lose in 2012. While the country’s high hopes for Obama ensured his election those same hopes may damn his presidency.
High expectations for Obama’s presidency stem from campaign rhetoric which promised hope and change. Americans expect Obama to heal a paralyzed economy win and end two foreign wars and temper partisanship in Washington D.C.
As a Nov. 14. 2008 Gallup Poll found 65 percent believed the country would be better off four years from now compared to the 50 percent of respondents who thought the same after the 2000 election of George W. Bush. The results of these surveys raise a question: Are the hopes of the country setting Obama up to fail? Most likely.
In addition to the general burdens of office the economic and foreign policy issues his administration faces are bound to trip up any presidency. Furthermore the constitutional system of checks and balances ensures that no single branch can implement significant change without the consent of the others. Despite a Democratic majority Congress does not like to be told what to do especially by a relative Washington novice like Obama. James Madison would be satisfied that the document he wrote more than two centuries ago will force even an iconic president to adhere to the democratic process.
The group with the highest expectations for the administration will be those who supported him throughout the campaign. Will their support weather the peaks and valleys of a presidential first term? If their loyalty during Obama’s campaign was any indication then the answer is yes.
The Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers would have stymied most campaigns but not Obama’s. His visionary and innovative leadership is unequivocal highlighted by a campaign that used the Internet and social networking sites more effectively than any president in history.
Adding to the expectations for Obama is the news media which typically cover Obama favorably. Editorials around the country which were critical of the Bush administration have been lavishing praise on Obama since the beginning of campaign season. Reverential praise has set the bar impossibly high for Obama who even before the first week of his presidency has drawn comparisons to President Franklin Roosevelt and President John Kennedy.
Americans will either become disillusioned from the inevitable mistakes in Obama’s first term or the mistakes will be largely overlooked. Either way we are sure to see the Obama administration through the filtered lens of a left-leaning media.Political analysts and voters alike are already discussing the possibility of Obama’s re-election in 2012. The state of the economy will be the deciding factor in the next election. Economists suggest the economy is cyclical moving through periods of expansion and contraction. Thus the current recessionary economy will rebound into a period of expansion should economic theory hold.
Unless the economy expands before 2012 the honeymoon with the American public will end putting Obama’s re-election prospects in serious danger. However if the economy recovers by the next election the president will most likely be re-elected. Even mistakes with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan can be absolved with a strong economy. Economic performance supersedes foreign policy decisions in the eyes of the typical American voter. For instance Jimmy Carter lost re-election not because of the Iranian hostage situation but because of a dismal economy. Also despite ineptitude in Somalia which cost the lives of American soldiers in 1993 President Clinton was re-elected in 1996 because it seemed the strength of the economy could not be stopped.
If the economic recovery programs President Obama promises to initiate do not improve the economy – or if they prolong economic decline as some economists suggest much of Roosevelt’s New Deal did in the 1930s – the election will be up for grabs in 2012. As a presidential candidate Obama promised us change in the country and a better future. The country expects him to deliver. We are waiting Mr. President.